Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -10.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -8.8 (+11.2) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -10.6 (+9.4) | 132.9 (-6.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -10.0 (+10.0) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -10.4 (+9.6) | 132.4 (-6.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | CAL 67 – 61 PAC |
| Nov 11, 2023 | PAC 87 – 79 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-11 |
| Home | 10-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#134) | -4.8 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#160) | -1.76 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#145) | -2.19 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#166) | 0.373 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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