Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -18.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -17.7 (-8.7) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -15.9 (-6.9) | 133.5 (+9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -16.1 (-7.1) | 134.1 (+8.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -16.6 (-7.6) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#50) | -4.9 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#71) | -2.44 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#56) | -2.67 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#100) | 0.359 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.9% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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