Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -0.3 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -0.7 (+21.3) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -1.0 (+23.0) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -1.8 (+23.8) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -1.4 (+23.4) | 145.2 (-1.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 11-3 |
| Home | 3-13 | 11-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L18 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#241) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#331) | 0.93 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#327) | 1.15 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#239) | 0.567 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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