Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +26 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -20.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -19.9 (+6.1) | 149.4 (-13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -17.9 (+8.1) | 153.4 (-17.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -19.6 (+6.4) | 154.8 (-18.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -20.0 (+6.0) | 154.0 (-18.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#74) | -9.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#62) | -2.30 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#64) | -3.21 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#80) | 0.438 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 80.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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