Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +3 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -0.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -0.9 (+3.9) | 140.2 (-33.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.2 (+1.8) | 142.5 (-35.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -1.3 (+1.7) | 143.0 (-36.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.4 (+1.6) | 143.3 (-36.3) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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