Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -14.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.3 (-24.3) | 155.9 (-1.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -12.1 (-26.1) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -12.6 (-26.6) | 152.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -12.2 (-26.2) | 154.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#130) | -7.7 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#149) | -1.93 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#130) | -2.29 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.406 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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