← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

23–2 on winners spread MAE 9.0 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Alcorn State @ Baylor	+24.9	139.7	91%	57–94	✓
Incarnate Word @ Purdue	+25.0	154.5	91%	59–79	✓
Delaware State @ Wagner	+23.6	136.6	91%	51–93	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Charlotte	+3.5	146.1	65%	54–70	✓
Western Carolina @ Georgia	+6.0	147.7	73%	79–85	✓
Stetson @ Miami	+10.7	138.6	85%	72–82	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Valparaiso	+2.9	144.7	64%	55–67	✓
Manhattan @ Charleston Southern	-5.9	148.2	26%	99–75	✓
UL Monroe @ Lamar	-2.1	145.0	35%	80–77	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State	+8.6	149.5	81%	57–89	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	+0.9	145.0	57%	82–73	✗
St. Thomas @ Omaha	-9.7	151.1	18%	80–73	✓
Western Michigan @ Notre Dame	+14.2	145.4	87%	52–85	✓
Northern Arizona @ Gonzaga	+23.7	150.0	91%	49–95	✓
Western Illinois @ Denver	-5.2	143.8	30%	84–80	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Ohio	+17.0	137.4	90%	70–85	✓
Southern Miss @ East Carolina	+12.3	139.3	87%	67–68	✓
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh	+0.7	121.1	46%	55–64	✓
UTSA @ Illinois State	+10.5	153.0	85%	64–81	✓
Jacksonville State @ Little Rock	-6.7	141.1	28%	87–67	✓
Samford @ Ole Miss	+8.2	137.8	77%	75–73	✗
Dartmouth @ Cal State Bakersfield	+2.7	130.0	60%	57–61	✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern	-3.2	151.2	38%	75–65	✓
Merrimack @ Maine	-9.5	122.1	18%	49–47	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M	+21.7	146.6	91%	61–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.