Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -900 KC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +32 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -11.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.7 (+21.3) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.6 (+23.4) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.9 (+23.1) | 149.7 (-3.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -10.4 (+21.6) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SDST 73 – 59 KC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SDST 90 – 62 KC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SDST 70 – 65 KC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDST 65 – 64 KC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | KC 72 – 67 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#101) | -2.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#111) | -0.39 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#124) | -0.31 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#83) | 0.477 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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