Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -10.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -11.0 (-13.0) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -8.2 (-10.2) | 137.8 (+10.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -8.6 (-10.6) | 138.5 (+9.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -9.4 (-11.4) | 140.3 (+7.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#124) | -3.4 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#123) | 0.85 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#131) | 0.70 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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