Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -13.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.2 (+8.8) | 151.9 (-6.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -10.5 (+6.5) | 153.0 (-8.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -11.3 (+5.7) | 153.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -10.5 (+6.5) | 153.3 (-8.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#222) | -11.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#221) | -1.36 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#205) | -1.61 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#249) | 0.370 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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