That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
Purcell Pavilion · December 21, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread ND -21.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money ND -7000 / WMU +1600
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual ND +33 137 Won
Massey ND -19.0 (+14.0) — —
Massey Totals — 143.1 (-6.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ND -18.3 (+14.7) 143.7 (-6.7) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML ND -14.2 (+18.8) 145.4 (-8.4) 87% ✓
Baseline ML ND -14.9 (+18.1) 144.2 (-7.2) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ND -16.2 (+16.8) 141.8 (-4.8) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2023 ND 86 – 65 WMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND WMU
Overall 24-11 8-23
Conference 15-5 4-16
Home 14-1 4-10
Away 7-5 2-13
Neutral 2-5 2-0
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 65.0
Avg Pts Against 67.2 76.2
Massey 2.6 (#121) -11.9 (#338)
Bradley-Terry 0.03 (#183) -1.12 (#262)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.28 (#157) -1.87 (#287)
RPI 0.510 (#155) 0.452 (#254)
Shooting & Four Factors ND WMU
FG% 41.2% 42.9%
3PT% 28.6% 33.2%
REB / G 33.5 33.0
OREB / G 8.8 10.3
AST / TO 1.03 0.70
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 50.4%
TOV% 17.0% 23.3%
ORB% 25.5% 29.5%
FT Rate 20.4% 15.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 55.7%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 15.5%
DRB% 78.6% 64.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 21.8%

Game Analysis

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