Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | ND -480 WMU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ND -7.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -5.5 (+15.5) | 130.0 (+21.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.2 (+16.8) | 129.2 (+21.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -5.2 (+15.8) | 128.3 (+22.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.8 (+14.2) | 128.3 (+22.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2021 | ND 85 – 52 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#236) | -4.3 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#218) | -1.65 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#225) | -2.41 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#140) | 0.426 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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