Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -340 EMU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -4.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.7 (+6.3) | 145.9 (-23.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.9 (+9.1) | 144.7 (-22.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -3.3 (+8.7) | 145.7 (-23.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -3.5 (+8.5) | 145.3 (-23.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#219) | -2.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#246) | 0.17 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#238) | 0.39 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#279) | 0.549 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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