Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | CHSO +280 MAN -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +24 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -6.9 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -5.7 (-18.3) | 145.5 (+28.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -5.9 (-18.1) | 148.2 (+25.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -6.7 (-17.3) | 148.6 (+25.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -6.5 (-17.5) | 146.7 (+27.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHSO | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#343) | -7.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#325) | 0.15 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#327) | -0.37 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#330) | 0.507 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHSO | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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