Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -22.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -20.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -18.4 (-3.4) | 139.9 (+15.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -17.0 (-2.0) | 137.4 (+17.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -17.1 (-2.1) | 137.6 (+17.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -18.5 (-3.5) | 138.7 (+16.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#94) | -10.3 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#35) | -2.10 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#32) | -2.72 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#39) | 0.424 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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