Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -15.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -12.4 (-11.4) | 136.7 (-1.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -12.3 (-11.3) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -11.8 (-10.8) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -12.1 (-11.1) | 136.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#183) | -11.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#154) | -1.12 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#178) | -1.93 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.428 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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