Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -39.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | PUR -10000 UIW +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -38.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -27.3 (-7.3) | 151.6 (-13.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -25.0 (-5.0) | 154.5 (-16.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -32.3 (-12.3) | 150.7 (-12.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -33.1 (-13.1) | 150.4 (-12.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#5) | -13.8 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#25) | -2.91 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#17) | -3.86 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#23) | 0.409 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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