Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -10000 ALCN +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +37 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -30.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -30.4 (+6.6) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BAY -27.9 (+9.1) | 138.2 (+12.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BAY -24.9 (+12.1) | 139.7 (+11.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -30.0 (+7.0) | 140.4 (+10.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BAY 113 – 56 ALCN |
| Dec 30, 2020 | BAY 105 – 76 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#3) | -5.5 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#2) | -1.92 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.08 (#2) | -2.50 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#18) | 0.439 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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