Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +57 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -29.8 (+27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -27.1 (+29.9) | 157.2 (+11.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -23.8 (+33.2) | 159.4 (+9.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -28.4 (+28.6) | 160.6 (+8.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -27.3 (+29.7) | 157.6 (+11.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2021 | BAY 94 – 57 ALCN |
| Dec 30, 2020 | BAY 105 – 76 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#53) | -14.7 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#59) | -1.33 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#59) | -1.94 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#62) | 0.460 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 58.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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