We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Foster Pavilion · December 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -35.5 Home covered
O/U 160.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +57 169 Won
Massey BAY -29.8 (+27.2)
Massey Totals 174.4 (-5.4)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -27.3 (+29.7) 157.6 (+11.4) 91%
Model 4 ML BAY -27.1 (+29.9) 157.2 (+11.8) 91%
Model 3 ML BAY -23.8 (+33.2) 159.4 (+9.6) 91%
Baseline ML BAY -28.4 (+28.6) 160.6 (+8.4) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2021 BAY 9457 ALCN
Dec 30, 2020 BAY 10576 ALCN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY ALCN
Overall 17-17 9-23
Conference 6-12 7-11
Home 11-6 5-4
Away 3-7 2-18
Neutral 3-4 2-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.4 66.9
Avg Pts Against 76.9 80.2
Massey 10.7 (#53) -14.7 (#352)
Bradley-Terry 1.77 (#59) -1.33 (#278)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.76 (#59) -1.94 (#278)
RPI 0.578 (#62) 0.460 (#245)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY ALCN
FG% 47.8% 44.0%
3PT% 35.3% 37.3%
REB / G 39.0 28.9
OREB / G 14.9 9.6
AST / TO 1.40 0.58
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 50.6%
TOV% 15.6% 24.8%
ORB% 41.2% 28.4%
FT Rate 29.1% 15.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 58.2%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 17.5%
DRB% 67.4% 58.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 31.2%

Game Analysis

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