Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -42.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +29 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -50.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -37.6 (-8.6) | 156.7 (+24.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BAY -24.8 (+4.2) | 161.1 (+19.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BAY -25.6 (+3.4) | 159.6 (+21.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -36.5 (-7.5) | 157.8 (+23.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BAY 113 – 56 ALCN |
| Dec 21, 2021 | BAY 94 – 57 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 6-7 |
| Home | 11-0 | 4-3 |
| Away | 7-1 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 26.3 (#1) | -20.2 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#6) | -1.65 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.67 (#3) | -2.71 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#37) | 0.482 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 46.4% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 0.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 65.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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