We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Ferrell Center · December 30, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -42.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +29 181 Won
Massey BAY -50.7 (-21.7)
Massey Totals 163.7 (+17.3)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -37.6 (-8.6) 156.7 (+24.3) 91%
Model 4 ML BAY -24.8 (+4.2) 161.1 (+19.9) 91%
Model 3 ML BAY -25.6 (+3.4) 159.6 (+21.4) 91%
Baseline ML BAY -36.5 (-7.5) 157.8 (+23.2) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 20, 2025 BAY 11356 ALCN
Dec 21, 2021 BAY 9457 ALCN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY ALCN
Overall 28-2 6-13
Conference 13-1 6-7
Home 11-0 4-3
Away 7-1 2-9
Neutral 10-1 0-1
Last 5 5-0 0-4
Streak W6 L4
Avg Pts For 82.9 66.1
Avg Pts Against 65.5 75.6
Massey 26.3 (#1) -20.2 (#329)
Bradley-Terry 3.89 (#6) -1.65 (#270)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.67 (#3) -2.71 (#283)
RPI 0.618 (#37) 0.482 (#181)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY ALCN
FG% 51.8% 35.7%
3PT% 46.4% 23.3%
REB / G 40.4 31.5
OREB / G 13.9 12.5
AST / TO 1.93 0.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.6% 39.4%
TOV% 15.6% 25.6%
ORB% 39.9% 31.1%
FT Rate 17.3% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 65.7%
Opp TOV% 27.5% 16.3%
DRB% 74.1% 62.8%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 32.6%

Game Analysis

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