Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -4.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -5.0 (+8.0) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.5 (+10.5) | 135.9 (-6.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.7 (+9.3) | 138.4 (-9.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.4 (+9.6) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 16-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#17) | 15.0 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#52) | 3.69 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#33) | 5.11 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#27) | 0.673 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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