Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -13.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -15.4 (-6.4) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -14.8 (-5.8) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -14.0 (-5.0) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.7 (-4.7) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#100) | -3.9 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#132) | -0.15 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#161) | -0.70 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#139) | 0.488 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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