Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -125 STMN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -0.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.6 (+3.6) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -0.2 (+0.8) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -0.5 (+0.5) | 148.8 (+0.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.8 (+1.8) | 146.1 (+2.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#265) | -0.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#288) | -0.90 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#274) | -1.15 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#294) | 0.456 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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