Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–12 on winners spread MAE 10.6 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arizona @ Tennessee +0.6 151.6 43% 73–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Canisius -4.1 141.8 30% 90–97 ✗
Sam Houston @ North Carolina Central +1.1 139.1 53% 68–51 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Chattanooga +10.2 147.4 81% 65–77 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis +10.3 153.3 83% 75–67 ✗
Charleston @ Old Dominion +2.2 142.8 55% 82–80 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Indiana +17.8 140.8 90% 61–79 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Wichita State +17.7 147.6 89% 66–102 ✓
North Alabama @ UCF +15.9 133.1 88% 64–75 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Georgia +2.8 140.8 60% 86–84 ✗
Clemson @ Virginia +3.3 132.0 64% 67–50 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Marist +12.1 138.2 87% 45–68 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth +8.5 148.8 79% 77–71 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ UAB +24.5 153.2 91% 58–100 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Nebraska +2.5 156.0 61% 74–88 ✓
Texas State @ Houston +18.3 140.1 89% 47–80 ✓
Lipscomb @ LSU +25.0 142.5 91% 60–95 ✓
Boise State @ Washington State +7.1 137.3 70% 58–52 ✗
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +18.1 137.5 90% 48–72 ✓
Longwood @ Abilene Christian +8.7 145.9 80% 58–74 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +11.8 138.4 88% 76–86 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +9.6 160.7 83% 76–82 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha -12.4 152.1 15% 78–84 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota +2.0 135.1 59% 68–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +7.1 142.7 77% 65–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ San Diego State +11.2 130.0 82% 57–78 ✓
Missouri @ Illinois +15.4 142.6 87% 63–88 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +8.9 156.7 81% 59–87 ✓
Bradley @ UTEP -1.3 134.6 45% 73–66 ✓
BYU @ South Florida -12.7 131.3 14% 54–39 ✓
San Diego @ UNLV +3.4 133.2 64% 57–80 ✓
Missouri State @ Saint Mary's +5.6 131.9 72% 58–75 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Hawai'i -1.7 137.8 47% 68–54 ✓
Wagner @ Fairfield +2.2 135.5 54% 63–50 ✗
Liberty @ Stanford +0.9 135.3 55% 76–79 ✓
Fresno State @ Weber State +0.1 134.1 51% 69–43 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Wyoming +8.3 138.4 79% 69–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.