Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | MRST -700 BCU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +23 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -14.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -9.4 (+13.6) | 134.4 (-21.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -12.1 (+10.9) | 138.2 (-25.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -11.9 (+11.1) | 137.8 (-24.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -11.4 (+11.6) | 135.5 (-22.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#193) | -10.5 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#202) | -1.55 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#204) | -1.96 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#203) | 0.453 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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