Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | NCCU +220 SHSU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +17 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -0.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -1.3 (-15.7) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.1 (-18.1) | 139.1 (-20.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -0.6 (-17.6) | 139.8 (-20.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.4 (-17.4) | 140.7 (-21.7) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#286) | -7.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#293) | -2.34 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#315) | -2.65 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#329) | 0.406 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 9.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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