Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -5.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -5.4 (+11.6) | 130.7 (+2.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.6 (+11.4) | 131.9 (+1.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -6.3 (+10.7) | 132.6 (+0.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.1 (+10.9) | 133.2 (-0.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 24, 2023 | MOST 69 – 64 SMC |
| Dec 8, 2022 | SMC 66 – 46 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#65) | 6.8 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#36) | 0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#44) | 0.48 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#39) | 0.468 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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