I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
University Credit Union Pavilion · December 24, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -14.0 Away covered
O/U 131.0 Over
Money SMC -1000 / MOST +650
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual MOST +5 133 Lost
Massey SMC -11.1 (-16.1) — —
Massey Totals — 129.2 (+3.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SMC -12.1 (-17.1) 131.5 (+1.5) 81% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SMC -11.0 (-16.0) 131.6 (+1.4) 81% ✗
Baseline ML SMC -11.2 (-16.2) 131.6 (+1.4) 81% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SMC -11.0 (-16.0) 132.5 (+0.5) 82% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 8, 2022 SMC 66 – 46 MOST
Dec 23, 2021 SMC 75 – 58 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC MOST
Overall 26-8 17-16
Conference 15-1 8-12
Home 14-4 9-5
Away 9-0 4-10
Neutral 3-4 4-1
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.0 71.2
Avg Pts Against 60.2 71.3
Massey 10.0 (#50) 3.4 (#113)
Bradley-Terry 1.02 (#97) 0.37 (#147)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.45 (#92) 0.75 (#131)
RPI 0.583 (#54) 0.531 (#124)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC MOST
FG% 42.1% 44.4%
3PT% 28.9% 33.1%
REB / G 42.0 41.5
OREB / G 15.9 9.8
AST / TO 1.15 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 51.5%
TOV% 18.5% 19.2%
ORB% 42.0% 29.5%
FT Rate 17.1% 26.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.4% 43.0%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 12.6%
DRB% 75.6% 76.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.3% 17.9%

Game Analysis

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