Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | SMC -1000 MOST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -11.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.1 (-17.1) | 131.5 (+1.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.0 (-16.0) | 131.6 (+1.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.2 (-16.2) | 131.6 (+1.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.0 (-16.0) | 132.5 (+0.5) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | SMC 66 – 46 MOST |
| Dec 23, 2021 | SMC 75 – 58 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-0 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | 3.4 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#97) | 0.37 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#92) | 0.75 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#54) | 0.531 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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