Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -800 MOST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -17.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.3 (+7.7) | 123.7 (-11.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -13.4 (+6.6) | 127.4 (-15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -13.0 (+7.0) | 126.6 (-14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.0 (+7.0) | 127.6 (-15.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 24, 2023 | MOST 69 – 64 SMC |
| Dec 23, 2021 | SMC 75 – 58 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#19) | 1.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#65) | -0.16 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#46) | 0.21 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#48) | 0.464 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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