Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +33 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -19.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.5 (+16.5) | 133.8 (-6.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -18.3 (+14.7) | 140.1 (-13.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -18.7 (+14.3) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -19.5 (+13.5) | 136.7 (-9.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | HOU 72 – 37 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#5) | 5.4 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#32) | 1.49 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#26) | 1.49 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#34) | 0.559 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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