Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +35 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -27.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -24.1 (+10.9) | 125.6 (-16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -23.6 (+11.4) | 127.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -26.5 (+8.5) | 124.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -27.2 (+7.8) | 125.7 (-16.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2021 | HOU 80 – 47 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#3) | -0.6 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.44 (#1) | 0.19 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.16 (#1) | 0.40 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#5) | 0.522 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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