Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -1600 UCSD +890 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +21 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -12.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.6 (+8.4) | 129.4 (+5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -12.7 (+8.3) | 130.1 (+4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.2 (+9.8) | 130.0 (+5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -13.7 (+7.3) | 129.9 (+5.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2024 | SDSU 63 – 58 UCSD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SDSU 63 – 62 UCSD |
| Dec 21, 2022 | SDSU 62 – 46 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 0-0 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#74) | -0.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#42) | -0.37 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#42) | -0.07 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#29) | 0.473 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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