Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -10000 UCSD +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +16 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -22.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -20.4 (-4.4) | 137.4 (-29.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -20.7 (-4.7) | 136.2 (-28.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -18.7 (-2.7) | 136.8 (-28.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -20.2 (-4.2) | 135.6 (-27.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2024 | SDSU 63 – 58 UCSD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SDSU 63 – 62 UCSD |
| Dec 23, 2021 | SDSU 78 – 57 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#34) | -6.6 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#55) | -0.81 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#54) | -1.26 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#26) | 0.448 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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