Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | ACU -270 LONG +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -8.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -10.5 (+5.5) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -8.7 (+7.3) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -9.6 (+6.4) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -7.9 (+8.1) | 145.0 (-13.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#80) | 2.4 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#98) | -1.17 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#97) | -1.26 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#102) | 0.399 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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