Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -8.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.6 (+4.4) | 140.1 (+0.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.1 (+3.9) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -7.2 (+3.8) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.4 (+4.6) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#8) | 14.0 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#13) | 1.54 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#10) | 2.34 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#32) | 0.566 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.01 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.2% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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