Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | IU -21.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -19.9 (-1.9) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -17.8 (+0.2) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -19.7 (-1.7) | 140.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -20.2 (-2.2) | 142.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#31) | -5.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#67) | -1.45 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#62) | -2.45 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#50) | 0.418 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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