Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -2400 UNA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -18.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -17.8 (-6.8) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -15.9 (-4.9) | 133.1 (+5.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -17.0 (-6.0) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -15.8 (-4.8) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#55) | -5.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#49) | -0.23 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#47) | -0.49 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#72) | 0.490 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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