Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | STAN -130 LIB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -2.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -2.8 (+0.2) | 132.0 (+23.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -0.9 (+2.1) | 135.3 (+19.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -1.3 (+1.7) | 135.8 (+19.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -1.5 (+1.5) | 131.9 (+23.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | 0.54 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#85) | 0.16 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#60) | 0.525 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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