Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | WEB -115 FRES -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +26 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -1.6 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -1.2 (-24.8) | 131.2 (-19.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -0.1 (-26.1) | 134.1 (-22.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.2 (-25.8) | 134.1 (-22.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.5 (-25.5) | 135.3 (-23.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#147) | 7.0 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#99) | 1.17 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#99) | 1.52 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#118) | 0.562 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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