Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +15 | 93 | Lost |
| Massey | BYU -17.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -12.9 (-2.1) | 129.9 (-36.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -12.7 (-2.3) | 131.3 (-38.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -13.4 (-1.6) | 129.2 (-36.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -14.3 (-0.7) | 131.4 (-38.4) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-6 |
| Home | 6-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | 13.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#275) | 2.55 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#268) | 3.46 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#316) | 0.670 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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