Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +26 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -5.1 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -3.3 (-22.7) | 131.8 (+16.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -5.3 (-20.7) | 134.1 (+13.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.4 (-21.6) | 134.3 (+13.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.6 (-21.4) | 134.4 (+13.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#259) | 0.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#321) | -1.06 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#300) | -1.50 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#301) | 0.442 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 8.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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