Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -17.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -11.4 (+10.6) | 133.9 (+20.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -14.0 (+8.0) | 131.9 (+22.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -13.9 (+8.1) | 130.9 (+23.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -14.8 (+7.2) | 130.8 (+23.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#209) | -14.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#228) | -4.29 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#209) | -5.90 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#260) | 0.339 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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