Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | MARQ +190 CONN -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -5.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.3 (-3.7) | 149.9 (-1.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.2 (-4.8) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.3 (-4.7) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.7 (-4.3) | 150.7 (-2.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#89) | 15.3 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#38) | 2.55 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#57) | 3.57 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#23) | 0.573 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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