Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -13.0 Push |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -10.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.0 (+2.0) | 148.5 (-19.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -10.5 (+2.5) | 149.9 (-20.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -10.2 (+2.8) | 148.3 (-19.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -10.7 (+2.3) | 148.7 (-19.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 18-0 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#10) | 10.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#15) | 2.36 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#16) | 2.75 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#11) | 0.644 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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