Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USU -23.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -21.2 (-2.2) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -18.5 (+0.5) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -20.6 (-1.6) | 144.4 (-1.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -20.4 (-1.4) | 145.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#44) | -9.8 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#57) | -3.40 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#49) | -4.51 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#39) | 0.330 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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