Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -6.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.6 (+11.4) | 153.0 (-31.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -4.5 (+9.5) | 154.6 (-32.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -4.6 (+9.4) | 154.6 (-32.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -4.5 (+9.5) | 155.7 (-33.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 12-2 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#195) | -2.9 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#201) | 0.65 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#210) | 1.01 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#183) | 0.516 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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