Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CIT -130 MAN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -7.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -5.1 (-8.1) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -4.9 (-7.9) | 153.0 (-2.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -5.3 (-8.3) | 152.8 (-1.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -4.7 (-7.7) | 151.1 (-0.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#226) | -5.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#209) | 0.20 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#238) | -0.34 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#198) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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