Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -17.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -16.4 (-1.4) | 139.4 (-6.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -16.6 (-1.6) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -16.6 (-1.6) | 136.2 (-3.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -19.7 (-4.7) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#84) | -7.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#96) | -1.69 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#78) | -2.24 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#186) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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