Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | UNC -1600 APP +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.9 (+7.1) | 137.8 (-17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.3 (+7.7) | 141.7 (-21.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -13.2 (+6.8) | 141.7 (-21.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.7 (+7.3) | 140.0 (-20.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#54) | -0.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#58) | -0.26 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#55) | 0.11 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#33) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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