Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -7.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.8 (-6.8) | 144.7 (+12.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.3 (-5.3) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.5 (-5.5) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.0 (-4.0) | 146.4 (+10.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#12) | 8.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#23) | 2.21 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#26) | 2.44 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#2) | 0.583 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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